[1]谭蔚琦,吴浩杰,刘馨,等.基于气象因子的小麦籽粒呕吐毒素(DON)污染风险的早期预警方法[J].江苏农业学报,2025,(04):790-798.[doi:doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-4440.2025.04.017]
　TAN Weiqi,WU Haojie,LIU Xin,et al.Early warning method for the risk of deoxynivalenol (DON) contamination in wheat grains based on meteorological factors[J].,2025,(04):790-798.[doi:doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-4440.2025.04.017]
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基于气象因子的小麦籽粒呕吐毒素(DON)污染风险的早期预警方法()
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江苏农业学报[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]

卷:
期数:
2025年04期
页码:
790-798
栏目:
加工贮藏·质量安全
出版日期:
2025-04-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Early warning method for the risk of deoxynivalenol (DON) contamination in wheat grains based on meteorological factors
作者:
谭蔚琦1; 2; 吴浩杰1; 2; 刘馨2; 高弢2; 徐剑宏2; 史建荣2; 李福后1; 仇剑波2; 吴少杰1; 沈广辉2
(1.江苏省海洋资源与环境重点实验室/江苏省海洋生物产业技术协同创新中心/江苏海洋大学,江苏连云港222000；2.江苏省食品质量安全重点实验室省部共建国家重点实验室培育基地/江苏省农业科学院农产品质量安全与营养研究所/农业农村部农产品质量安全控制技术与标准重点实验室,江苏南京210014)
Author(s):
TAN Weiqi1; 2; WU Haojie1; 2; LIU Xin2; GAO Tao2; XU Jianhong2; SHI Jianrong2; LI Fuhou1; QIU Jianbo2; WU Shaojie1; SHEN Guanghui2
(1.Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Marine Bioresources and Environment/Co-innovation Center of Jiangsu Marine Bio-industry Technology/Jiangsu Ocean University, Lianyungang 222000, China;2.Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Food Quality and Safety-State Key Laboratory Cultivation Base, Ministry of Science and Technology/Institute of Food Safety and Nutrition, Jiangsu Academy of Agricultural Sciences/ Key Laboratory for Control Technology and Standard for Agro-product Safety and Quality, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Nanjing 210014, China)
关键词:
小麦; 呕吐毒素（DON）; 气象因子; 预警模型
Keywords:
wheat; deoxynivalenol (DON); meteorological factor; early-warning models
分类号:
S431.11
DOI:
doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-4440.2025.04.017
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
小麦籽粒中的呕吐毒素(DON)严重威胁人畜健康。为实现小麦籽粒DON污染的早期预警,本研究以2016-2019年、2021-2022年在江苏省采集的小麦籽粒样品和气象因子为研究对象,探究不同时间窗口内各气象因子与小麦籽粒DON污染水平的相关性,分别针对田间精准防治和收获后小麦产品监管需求筛选特征气象因子,结合化学计量学算法,构建小麦籽粒DON污染风险早期预警模型。结果显示,利用筛选出的扬花期前后特征气象因子构建的模型（AF_Model_2）优于利用扬花期前后全部气象因子构建的模型（AF_Model_1）,以及分别利用扬花期前所有气象因子和筛选出的扬花期前特征气象因子构建的BF_Model_1模型和BF_Model_2模型，AF_Model_2模型预测集决定系数（R2p）和均方根误差（RMSEp）分别为0.53和0.28。本研究开发的小麦籽粒DON污染风险早期预警模型可以指导小麦赤霉病田间防治和收获后小麦产品监管,对保障粮食安全具有重要意义。
Abstract:
Deoxynivalenol (DON) in wheat grains poses a serious threat to the health of humans and animals. To achieve early warning of DON contamination in wheat grains, this study took the wheat grain samples and meteorological factors collected in Jiangsu province during the years 2016-2019 and 2021-2022 as the research objects. This study investigated the correlation between various meteorological factors and the DON contamination levels in wheat grains within different time windows. In addition, this study identified characteristic meteorological factors for both field precision control and post-harvest wheat product supervision needs, and combined chemometric algorithms to construct an early warning model for DON contamination risk in wheat grains. The results showed that the model (AF_Model_2) constructed using the characteristic meteorological factors before and after anthesis was superior to the model (AF_Model_1) constructed using all meteorological factors before and after anthesis, as well as the BF_Model_1 model constructed using all meteorological factors before anthesis and the BF_Model_2 model constructed using the characteristic meteorological factors before anthesis. The prediction set determination coefficient (R2p) and root mean square error （RMSEP） of the AF_Model_2 model were 0.53 and 0.28, respectively. The early warning model for DON contamination risk in wheat grains developed in this study can guide the field control of Fusarium head blight and the supervision of wheat products after harvest, which is of great significance for ensuring food security.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期：2024-08-30基金项目：国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFD1400903)；江苏省农业自主创新项目[CX(24)3035]；江苏省现代农业重点及面上项目(BE2022377)；国家自然科学基金项目(32402257)；江苏省科技成果转化专项资金项目(BA2022034)作者简介：谭蔚琦(2000-),男,江苏徐州人,硕士研究生,主要从事农产品质量安全检测技术研究。(E-mail)20842461@qq.com通讯作者：吴少杰,(E-mail)shjwu@jou.edu.cn；沈广辉,(E-mail)shenguanghui@jaas.ac.cn；仇剑波，(E-mail)qiujianbo@jaas.ac.cn
更新日期/Last Update: 2025-05-26