[1]葛道阔,曹宏鑫,马晓群,等.基于作物生长模型的小麦旱涝敏感性分析与损失评估[J].江苏农业学报,2016,(06):1302-1309.[doi:doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-4440.2016.06.017]
　GE Dao-kuo,CAO Hong-xin,MA Xiao-qun,et al.Sensitivity analysis and damage assessment for wheat drought and waterlogged based on crop growth model[J].,2016,(06):1302-1309.[doi:doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-4440.2016.06.017]
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基于作物生长模型的小麦旱涝敏感性分析与损失评估()
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江苏农业学报[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]

卷:
期数:
2016年06期
页码:
1302-1309
栏目:
耕作栽培·资源环境
出版日期:
2017-02-07

文章信息/Info

Title:
Sensitivity analysis and damage assessment for wheat drought and waterlogged based on crop growth model
作者:
葛道阔1; 曹宏鑫1; 马晓群2; 张文宇1; 张伟欣1
（1.江苏省农业科学院农业经济与信息研究所， 江苏南京210014；2.安徽省气象科学研究所，安徽合肥230061）
Author(s):
GE Dao-kuo1; CAO Hong-xin1; MA Xiao-qun2; ZHANG Wen-yu1; ZHANG Wei-xin1
(1.Institute of Agricultural Economy and Information，Jiangsu Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Nanjing 210014，China；2.Institute of Meteorological Science of Anhui Province，Hefei 230061，China)
关键词:
冬小麦; 模型; 旱涝; 敏感性分析; 损失评估
Keywords:
winter wheat; model; drought and waterlogged; sensitivity analysis; yield loss assessment
分类号:
S126
DOI:
doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-4440.2016.06.017
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
针对山东、河南、江苏和安徽4个小麦主产省小麦生产现状以及旱涝评估技术要求，运用经改进的WCSODS（小麦栽培模拟优化决策系统），通过检索代表性站点48年（1961-2008年）降水量、麦田初始土壤相对含水量和根层土壤相对含水量资料，计算了上述3要素在平均状况和极端状况下对应的小麦产量的变化幅度，进而进行了冬小麦旱、涝敏感性分析。在此基础上开展了研究区域的冬小麦旱、涝损失评估。结果显示，从时间上看，干旱损失随年代推移有降低的趋势，而涝渍损失没有随年代变化的趋势。从空间上看，干旱、涝渍损失均有明显的纬度分布特点，不同的是，干旱损失表现为北高南低，而涝渍损失表现为南高北低。
Abstract:
According to the production status of four major wheat producing provinces in Shandong, Henan, Jiangsu and Anhui and the technical requirements for drought and flood assessment , improved WCSODS (wheat cultivation simulation optimization decision system) was used to calculate the change range of precipitation, initial wheat field soil moisture, root zone soil moisture from 1961 to 2008 in representative sites under average and extreme conditions and to analyze the sensitivity. The damage assessment of drought and waterlogged for winter wheat in studied area. The results showed that the loss of drought had a trend of decreasing with time, but the loss of waterlogging didn’t change with time. From the aspect of space, the loss of drought and waterlogging also had significantly zonal distribution characteristics, the difference was that the loss of drought in the northern region was higher than that of southern region, while the waterlogging loss in the southern region was higher than that of northern region.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期：2016-05-17 基金项目：江苏省农业科技自主创新基金项目[CX(13)3054]；公益性行业(气象)科研专项（GYHY201006027） 作者简介：葛道阔（1965-），男，江苏南京人，研究员，主要从事作物生长模型、作物气象与气候变化影响评价研究。(Tel) (025)84390194；（E-mail）gedaokuo@163.com
更新日期/Last Update: 2017-02-07