[1]褚荣浩,申双和,吕厚荃,等.RegCM3下1951-2100年江苏省热量资源及一季稻气候生产潜力[J].江苏农业学报,2015,(04):779-785.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-4440.2015.04.011]
　CHU Rong-hao,SHEN Shuang-he,L Hou-quan,et al.Thermal resources and climatic potential productivity of single-season rice in Jiangsu province under RegCM3 from 1951 to 2100[J].,2015,(04):779-785.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-4440.2015.04.011]
点击复制

RegCM3下1951-2100年江苏省热量资源及一季稻气候生产潜力()
分享到：

江苏农业学报[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]

卷:
期数:
2015年04期
页码:
779-785
栏目:
耕作栽培·资源环境
出版日期:
2015-08-31

文章信息/Info

Title:
Thermal resources and climatic potential productivity of single-season rice in Jiangsu province under RegCM3 from 1951 to 2100
作者:
褚荣浩1; 申双和2; 吕厚荃3; 李萌1; 喻丽4; 沙修竹5
(1.南京信息工程大学应用气象学院，江苏南京210044；2.南京信息工程大学气象灾害预警预报与评估协同创新中心，江苏南京210044；3.中国气象局国家气象中心，北京100081;4.盐城大丰市气象局，江苏大丰224100；5.河南省人工影响天气领导小组办公室，河南郑州450003）
Author(s):
CHU Rong-hao1; SHEN Shuang-he2; L Hou-quan3; LI Meng1; YU Li4; SHA Xiu-zhu5
（1.College of Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044，China;2.Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disaster, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044，China;3.National Meteorological Center of China Meteorological Administration，Beijing 100081，China；4.Dafeng Meteorological Bureau, Dafeng 224100，China;5.Weather Modification Leading Group Office of Henan Province, Zhengzhou 450003，China）
关键词:
RegCM3; 江苏省; 热量资源; 一季稻; 气候生产潜力
Keywords:
RegCM3; Jiangsu province; thermal resource; single-season rice; climatic potential productivity
分类号:
S511
DOI:
10.3969/j.issn.1000-4440.2015.04.011
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为揭示气候变化情景下江苏省热量资源及一季稻气候生产潜力变化规律，本研究根据江苏省 1971-2000年逐日站点气象数据以及RegCM3模式模拟输出的格点气象数据，从中提取江苏省气象资料，对RegCM3下1951-2100年江苏省热量资源及一季稻气候生产潜力进行时空变化分析。结果显示：(1)江苏省热量资源总体呈现年≥10 ℃积温空间上由东北向西南逐渐增加，且随年份增加逐渐增加；一季稻适播期（≥10 ℃初日）空间上由西南向东北逐渐推迟，且随年份增加逐渐提前；一季稻生育期天数1951-2010年由东北向西南逐渐缩短，2011-2100年由东南向西北逐渐缩短。(2)随着热量资源的逐渐增加，江苏省一季稻气候生产潜力主要呈现出时间上低-高-低、空间上由西南向东北逐渐递减的趋势，且苏南西南部一直为高值区。
Abstract:
In order to reveal the change rules of thermal resources and climatic potential productivity of single season rice in Jiangsu province under climate change scenarios, based on daily meteorological data from 1971 to 2000 in Huang-Huai-Hai region combing with daily meteorological data from the regional climate model RegCM3, the meteorological data of Jiangsu province was extracted, and the spatial and temporal variations of the characteristics of thermal resources and climatic potential productivity of single-season rice in Jiangsu province under RegCM3 from 1951 to 2100 were analyzed. The results showed that: ①The accumulated temperature above 10 ℃ increased gradually from northeast to southwest over time. The optimum sowing date(the first day for the daily temperature to steadily pass 10 ℃) of single-season rice advanced gradually over time and delayed gradually from southwest to northeast. The length of single-season rice growth season was shortened gradually from northeast to southwest from 1951 to 2010, and was shortened as well from southeast to northwest from 2011 to 2100. and ②With the increase of thermal resources, the climatic potential productivity of single-season rice in Jiangsu province showed a low-high-low trend over time and decreased gradually from southwest to northeast, and the southwestern of southern Jiangsu province yielded the highest.

参考文献/References:


[1]秦大河,THOMAS S. IPCC第五次评估报告第一工作组报告的亮点结论[J].气候变化研究进展,2014,10(1):1-6.
[2]赵俊芳,郭建平,张艳红,等.气候变化对农业影响研究综述[J].中国农业气象,2010,31(2):200-205.
[3]朱敏,袁建辉.1961-2010年江苏省农业气候资源演变特征[J].气象与环境学报,2013,29(3):69-77.
[4]赵俊芳,郭建平,马玉平,等.气候变化背景下我国农业热量资源的变化趋势及适应对策[J].应用生态学报, 2010,21(3):2922-2930.
[5]冶明珠,郭建平,袁彬,等.气候变化背景下东北地区热量资源及玉米温度适宜度[J].应用生态学报,2012,23(10):2786-2794.
[6]胡琦,潘学标,邵长秀,等.1961-2010年中国农业热量资源分布和变化特征[J].中国农业气象,2014,35(2):119-127.
[7]钟新科,刘洛,徐新良,等.近30年中国玉米气候生产潜力时空变化特征[J].农业工程学报,2012,28(15):94-101.
[8]尹海霞,张勃,张建香,等.甘肃省河东地区春玉米气候因子及气候生产潜力时空变化[J].生态学杂志,2013,32(6):1504-1510.
[9]赵俊芳,郭建平,邬定荣,等.2011-2050年黄淮海冬小麦、夏玉米气候生产潜力评价[J].应用生态学报,2011,22(12):3189-3195.
[10]谢云,王晓岚,林燕.近40年中国东部地区夏秋粮作物农业气候生产潜力时空变化[J].资源科学,2003,25(2):7-13.
[11]田展,梁卓然,史军,等.近50年气候变化对中国小麦生产潜力的影响分析[J].中国农学通报,2013,29(9):61-69.
[12]陈长青,类成霞,王春春,等.气候变暖下东北地区春玉米生产潜力变化分析[J].地理科学,2011,31(10):1272-1279.
[13]濮梅娟,方韩,周曾奎.江苏省决策气象服务手册[M].北京:气象出版社,2001.
[14]包云轩,刘维,高苹,等.气候变暖背景下江苏省水稻热害发生规律及其对产量的影响[J],中国农业气象,2012,33(2):289-296.
[15]袁彬,郭建平,冶明珠,等.气候变化下东北春玉米品种熟型分布格局及其气候生产潜力[J].科学通报,2012,57(14):1252-1262.
[16]孙卫国.气候资源学[M].北京:气象出版社, 2008.
[17]颜宏,沈国权,毛耀顺.中华人民共和国气候图集[M].北京:气象出版社,2002.
[18]王宗明,张柏,张树清,等.松嫩平原农业气候生产潜力及自然资源利用率研究[J].中国农业气象,2005(26):1-6.
[19]郭建平,高素华,潘亚茹.东北地区农业气候生产潜力及其开发利用对策[J].气象,1994(21):3-9.
[20]赖纯佳,千怀遂,段海来,等.淮河流域双季稻气候适宜度及其变化趋势[J].生态学杂志,2009,28(11):2339-2346.
[21]俞芬,千怀遂,段海来,等.淮河流域水稻的气候适宜度及其变化趋势分析[J].地理科学,2008,28(4):537-542.
[22]刘勤,严昌荣,何文清.山西寿阳县旱作农业气候生产潜力研究[J].中国农业气象,2007(28):271-274.
[23]ALLEN R G, PEREIRA L S，RAES D. Crop evapotranspiration[R]. Rome: FAO, 1998. 
[24]丁加丽,彭世彰,徐俊增,等.控制灌溉条件下水稻蒸发蒸腾量及作物系数试验研究[J].河海大学学报：自然科学版,2006,34(3):239-242.
[25]郭建平,高素华,潘亚茹.东北地区农业气候生产潜力及其开发利用对策[J].气象,1994(21):3-9.
[26]刘勤,严昌荣,何文清.山西寿阳县旱作农业气候生产潜力研究[J].中国农业气象,2007(28):271-274.

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期：2015-03-14 基金项目：公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201106020、GYHY201506018) 作者简介：褚荣浩(1991-)，男，江苏泰州人，硕士研究生，主要从事农业气象研究。(Tel)15365192379；(E-mail)ronghao_chu@163.com 通讯作者：申双和，(E-mail)yqzhr@nuist.edu.cn
更新日期/Last Update: 2015-08-31