[1]易红娟,王节萍,孙雪梅,等.江苏沿江稻区水稻纹枯病病情扩展时间动态模型[J].江苏农业学报,2016,(06):1256-1261.[doi:doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-4440.2016.06.010]
　YI Hong-juan,WANG Jie-ping,SUN Xue-mei,et al.Studies on the dynamic models of rice sheath blight expansion with time in riparian rice region, Jiangsu province[J].,2016,(06):1256-1261.[doi:doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-4440.2016.06.010]
点击复制

江苏沿江稻区水稻纹枯病病情扩展时间动态模型()
分享到：

江苏农业学报[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]

卷:
期数:
2016年06期
页码:
1256-1261
栏目:
植物保护
出版日期:
2017-02-07

文章信息/Info

Title:
Studies on the dynamic models of rice sheath blight expansion with time in riparian rice region, Jiangsu province
作者:
易红娟1; 王节萍2; 孙雪梅1; 杨凌峰1; 刘嘉德1; 张谷丰2
(1. 江苏省南通市通州区植保站，江苏南通226300；2. 江苏省农业科学院植物保护研究所，江苏南京210014)
Author(s):
YI Hong-juan1; WANG Jie-ping2; SUN Xue-mei1; YANG Ling-feng1; LIU Jia-de1; ZHANG Gu-feng2
(1. Plant Protection Station of Tongzhou, Nantong 226300, China;2. Institute of Plant Protection, Jiangsu Academy of Agricultural Science, Nanjing 210014,China)
关键词:
水稻纹枯病; 病情扩展; 时间; 动态模型
Keywords:
rice sheath blight; disease expansion; time; dynamic models
分类号:
S435.111.4+2
DOI:
doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-4440.2016.06.010
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
本研究2014-2015年对江苏沿江稻区纹枯病病斑最高点离地面高度及病株数随时间变化的规律进行了系统研究，并进行了相关模型的分析拟合。结果表明，纹枯病病情随时间增长而蔓延扩展，应用SPSS曲线拟合病情随时间（t）变化的动态模型，根据各模型的检验参数分析比较，二次函数、三次函数、幂函数、Logistic函数的拟合程度较好，其中Logistic函数更能反映病情随时间变化的动态。根据Logistic函数分析得出的病斑最高点离地面高度Logistic函数曲线，计算得Logistic函数曲线的2个特征值t1等于12.79 d， t2等于42.05 d，曲线拐点为27.42 d；病株数Logistic曲线的特征值t1、t2分别等于12.89 d和18.16 d。由此可见纹枯病初见病株后的13～42 d，是病情发展最快的时期，因而纹枯病防治的起始时间应掌握在病情突增期之前，即见病后的13 d前。
Abstract:
The rules of the disease spots height and disease plants of rice sheath blight with the time variation at the growing season of rice from 2014 to 2015 were studied in riparian rice region, Jiangsu province, and the simulated models were analyzed. The results showed that the rice sheath blight extended as the time passed, and then the method of curvilinear regression was used to simulate the dynamic models of the disease and time by SPSS. The quadratic function, cubic function, power function and the Logistic function were selected to simulate the model and the fitting degree were good by the comparison of test parameters. Logistic function was the best in the five functions. Finally, the Logistic function for the disease spots height was constructed, the characteristic values of Logistic function were calculated as 12.79 d for t1 and 42.5 d for t2, and the curves turning point was 27.42 d. The characteristic values for disease plants of Logistic function were 12.89 d for t1 and 18.16 d for t2. So the period that the disease expanded quickly occured the date between 13 to 42 d after the beginning of the disease appeared, and the best time to prevent this disease was the first 13 d.

参考文献/References:

[1]朱凤，杨荣明，徐东祥，等. 2010年江苏省水稻纹枯病重发原因分析及防控对策探讨[J]. 植保技术与推广，2011,31(9):29-31.
[2]何忠全,何 彤,毛建辉. 水稻纹枯病的危害程度、产量损失与氮、钾、密的关系[J].植物病理学报，1991,21(4):305-309.
[3]曾泉，胡春锦，史国英，等. 氮素营养对水稻纹枯病菌致病力的影响[J]. 南方农业学报，2015，46（6）：1012-1017.
[4]TAN W Z, ZHANG W, OU Z Q, et al. Analyses of the temporal development and yield losses due to sheath blight of rice (Rhizoctonia solani AG1.1a)[J].Agricultural Sciences in China, 2007, 6(9):1074-1081. 
[5]黄庆裕，朱来佳，黎达境，等． 水稻纹枯病病情指数与病株率关系数学模型的研究及应用[J]． 广西植保， 2010, 23(1):1-3．
[6]何明，何忠全，秦敏. 我国水稻3大病害综合治理研究[J]．西南农业大学学报（自然科学版），1999，21(1):1-6.
[7]CAMPBLL C L，MAADDENL V. Introduction to plant disease epidemiology[M]. New York：John wiley & sons， 1990:76-52.
[8]TANG Q Y, PENG S B, BURESH R J, et al. Rice varietal difference in sheath blight development and its association with yield loss at different levels of N fertilization[J].Field Crops Research, 2007, 102(3):219-227.
[9]KIM K H, CHO J, LEE Y H, et al. Predicting potential epidemics of rice leaf blast and sheath blight in South Korea under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate change scenarios using a rice disease epidemiology model, EPIRICE[J].Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2015, 203(5):191-207.
[10]SU P, LIAO X L, ZHANG Y, et al. Influencing factors on rice sheath blight epidemics in integrated rice-duck system[J].Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2012, 11(9):1462-1473.
[11]SAVARY S，CASTILLA N P, WILLOCQUET L．Analysis of the spatio-temporal structure of rice sheath blight epidemics in a farmer’s field[J]．Plant Pathology, 2001, 50(1):53-68.
[12]杨娟，王莉娟，黄胜东，等． 基于重组自交系的水稻抗纹枯病QTL 定位[J]． 江苏农业学报， 2014， 30(6):1204-1207．
[13]WILLOCQUET L, SAVARY S, FERNANDEZ L, et al. Structure and validation of RICEPEST, a production situation-driven, crop growth model simulating rice yield response to multiple pest injuries for tropical Asia[J]. Ecological Modelling, 2002, 153(3): 247-268.
[14]吴祥，陈宏州，杨敬辉，等． 噻呋酰胺、氟环唑及其混配剂对水稻纹枯病的室内抑菌活性与田间防效[J]． 江苏农业科学，2014，42(12):152-154.
[15]PINNSCHMIDT H O, BATCHELOR W D, TENG P S. Simulation of multiple species pest damage in rice using CERES-rice[J]. Agricultural Systems, 1995, 48(2):193-222.
[16]汪晶晶，暴增海，马桂珍，等. 海洋细菌GM-1菌株对水稻纹枯病的防治作用及抗病机制初探[J]. 南方农业学报，2015，46（7）：1223-1227.
[17]GROTH D E. Effects of cultivar resistance and single fungicide application on rice sheath blight, yield, and quality[J]. Crop Protection, 2008, 27(7): 1125-1130.
[18]陈立华，金秋，牛明，等． 棘孢木霉对水稻纹枯病病原菌立枯丝核菌生物防治的研究[J]． 江苏农业科学，2015，43(5):115 -117．
[19]臧伟,郝树广,王海扣,等. 江淮稻区褐飞虱种群动态模拟模型[J]. 南京农业大学学报, 1996, 20(2):32-38.
[20]李海春, 傅俊范, 王新一, 等. 玉米大斑病病情发展及病斑扩展时间动态模型的研究[J]. 南京农业大学学报, 2005, 28(4):50-54.
[21]周如军，徐喆，王大洲，等. 辽宁花生褐斑病发生及时间流行动态模型研究[J].中国油料作物学报,2014，36(4): 533-537.
[22]李海春. 沈阳地区玉米灰斑病时间动态模型研究[J]. 玉米科学，2008，16(6)：111-113.
[23]李成文，谭万忠，欧增奇，等．水稻纹枯病流行的时间动态模拟分析[J]．西南师范大学学报(自然科学版)，2007，32(3) :85-89.
[24]周如军，刘志恒，杨红魏, 等. 辽宁省水稻纹枯病时间流行动态模型[J]. 植物保护, 2012，39(3)：283-284.
[25]PEARL R， REED L J. On the rate of growth of the population of the United States since 1790 and its mathematical representation [J]. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1920, 6(6):275-288.
[26]王振中,林孔勋. 逻辑斯谛曲线K值的四点式平均值估计法[J].生态学报,1987,7(3):193-198.
[27]中国科学院数学研究所数理统计组.回归分析方法[M].北京：科学出版社，1974.
[28]丁希泉，郑秀梅，农业实用回归分析方法[M].长春：吉林科学技术出版社，1989.
[29]ZHU H F, CHENG J, LU X L, et al. Comparisons of topical and spray applications of two pesticides, triazophos and jinggangmycin, on theprotein content in the ovaries and fat bodies of the brown planthopper Nilaparvata lugens[J]. Pesticide Biochemistry and Physiology, 2014, 114: 97-101.

相似文献/References:

[1]朱凤,张燕,易红娟,等.不同始病期水稻纹枯病消长动态及防治适期[J].江苏农业学报,2020,(01):63.[doi:doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-4440.2020.01.009]
　ZHU Feng,ZHANG Yan,YI Hong-juan,et al.Discussion on growth and decline trends of rice sheath blight in different disease starting periods and its optimum control period[J].,2020,(06):63.[doi:doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-4440.2020.01.009]

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期：2016-02-01 基金项目：科技基础性工作专项(2013FY113200)；江苏省农业科技自主创新基金项目[CX(15)1002] 作者简介：易红娟（1978-），女，江苏通州人，本科，高级农艺师，从事病虫测报研究。王节萍为共同第一作者。 通讯作者：张谷丰，（Tel）025-84390690；（E-mail）tzzbzzgf@hotmail.com
更新日期/Last Update: 2017-02-07