[1]沙修竹,申双和,陶苏林.长江中下游地区一季稻高温热害风险评估与区划[J].江苏农业学报,2015,(05):1053-1059.[doi:doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-4440.2015.05.017]
　SHA Xiu-zhu,SHEN Shuang-he,TAO Su-lin.Risk assessment and regionalization of heat injury for single-season rice in Middle and Lower Yangtze River[J].,2015,(05):1053-1059.[doi:doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-4440.2015.05.017]
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长江中下游地区一季稻高温热害风险评估与区划()
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江苏农业学报[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]

卷:
期数:
2015年05期
页码:
1053-1059
栏目:
耕作栽培·资源环境
出版日期:
2015-10-31

文章信息/Info

Title:
Risk assessment and regionalization of heat injury for single-season rice in Middle and Lower Yangtze River
作者:
沙修竹1; 申双和2; 陶苏林1
（1.南京信息工程大学应用气象学院，江苏南京210044；2.气象灾害预警预报与评估协同创新中心，南京信息工程大学，江苏南京210044）
Author(s):
SHA Xiu-zhu1; SHEN Shuang-he2; TAO Su-lin1
（1.School of Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;2.Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disaster, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China）〖JP〗
关键词:
高温热害; ORYZA2000; 灾损率; 风险评估模型
Keywords:
heat injury; ORYZA2000; damage rate; risk assessment model
分类号:
S162.2
DOI:
doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-4440.2015.05.017
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为探究1961-2013年长江中下游地区一季稻高温热害风险分布，根据一季稻抽穗开花期高温热害等级指标，统计逐站逐年各强度高温热害发生频次，利用ArcGIS分析高温热害空间分布，采用Morlet小波分析高温热害周期规律；设定抽穗开花期有无高温热害2种天气方案，使用ORYZA2000模型提取灾损率，进而根据灾害风险评估模型完成风险区划。结果表明：一季稻抽穗开花期高温热害分布面积为轻度＞中度＞重度，轻度、中度、重度高温热害分布面积最大省份均为湖北省；年际尺度28年为1961-2013年一季稻抽穗开花期高温热害频次的第一主周期。高温热害灾损率高值区为江苏中西部、浙江中部、安徽东南部、湖南西南部。高温热害风险高值区为湖北中南部及东北部、安徽中西部、湖南中北部。高温热害及其灾损率的空间分布不完全一致。
Abstract:
To explore the risk distribution of heat injury for single-season rice in Middle and Lower Yangtze River from 1961 to 2013, based on the indicators of single rice heat injury grade during flowering, the frequency of the damage with different intensities of each station and each year was counted up, the horizontal distribution of heat injury was analyzed by ArcGIS, and the periodic trend was analyzed by Morlet wavelet. Two weather programs were set, which were with and without heat injury during flowering, and the risk regionalization of heat injury were achieved using the model of damage risk evaluation based on the damage rate of heat injury extracted by ORYZA2000 model. Mild heat injury covered the largest area, and severe heat injury, the smallest area. Hubei province presented the largest areas for all three injury grades of heat. The first major period of heat injury during flowering from 1961 to 2013 were shown as 28 years. The areas with high damage rate of heat injury were midwestern Jiangsu province, central Zhejiang, southeastern Anhui, and southwestern Hunan. The areas with high risk of heat injury were south-central and northeastern Hubei, midwestern Anhui, north-central Hunan. The spatial distributions of heat injury was not consisten with its damage rate.〖JP〗

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期：2015-03-13 基金项目：“农业应对气候变化”项目（132020010406、1411145000994）；江苏省普通高校研究生科研创新计划项目(CXZZ12_0503)；公益性行业（气象）科研专项(GYHY201506018)〖JP〗 作者简介：沙修竹(1990-)，辽宁兴城人，硕士研究生，研究方向为农业气象。(E-mail)tongling.niao@163.com 通讯作者：申双和,(E-mail)yqzhr@nuist.edu.cn
更新日期/Last Update: 2015-10-31