[1]金晶,毛星,戴红君,等.基于分布滞后非线性模型的蟹塘水质受投喂量影响的关系分析[J].江苏农业学报,2022,38(04):994-1002.[doi:doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-4440.2022.04.016]
　JIN Jing,MAO Xing,DAI Hong-jun,et al.Analysis of the relationship between water quality of crab pond and feeding amount of feedstuff based on distributed lag non-linear model[J].,2022,38(04):994-1002.[doi:doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-4440.2022.04.016]
点击复制

基于分布滞后非线性模型的蟹塘水质受投喂量影响的关系分析()
分享到：

江苏农业学报[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]

卷:
38
期数:
2022年04期
页码:
994-1002
栏目:
农业信息工程
出版日期:
2022-08-31

文章信息/Info

Title:
Analysis of the relationship between water quality of crab pond and feeding amount of feedstuff based on distributed lag non-linear model
作者:
金晶; 毛星; 戴红君; 刘杨; 任妮
（江苏省农业科学院信息中心，江苏南京210014）
Author(s):
JIN Jing; MAO Xing; DAI Hong-jun; LIU Yang; REN Ni
(Information Center, Jiangsu Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Nanjing 210014, China)
关键词:
饲料投喂; 水质; 中华绒螯蟹; 分布滞后非线性模型
Keywords:
feedstuff feeding; water quality; Eriocheir sinensis; distributed lag non-linear model
分类号:
S966.16
DOI:
doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-4440.2022.04.016
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为明晰投喂量与蟹塘水质变化之间的关系，基于2020年宜兴市中华绒螯蟹养殖试验池塘的水质、气象和投喂数据，采用分布滞后非线性模型分析饲料投喂量对溶解氧质量浓度、pH值等6个水质指标的影响。结果表明：水质变化与饲料投喂量之间存在长期滞后效应。相对于投喂量的中位数，在高投喂量下，溶解氧质量浓度在75%的观测点呈现显著减少的趋势，滞后期内最大负效应达-1.781 mg/L（95%置信区间：-2.916～-0.647 mg/L）。氨氮质量浓度、电导率、pH值在部分滞后期显著减小，浊度显著上升。在低投喂量下，氨氮质量浓度和浊度在部分滞后期显著增加，其余指标显著减少。但高、低两种投喂量情景下叶绿素质量浓度变化的滞后效应均不显著。另外，同一深度不同位置及同一位置不同深度的溶解氧质量浓度受投喂量影响的滞后效应模式有所不同。研究结果可为生产环境下投喂量对水质变化的影响分析和水质调节策略制定提供支撑。
Abstract:
To understand the relationship between feeding amount of feedstuff and water quality variation in crab pond, impacts of feeding amount of feedstuff on six water quality indicators including mass concentration of dissolved oxygen, pH value, mass concentration of ammonia nitrogen, mass concentration of chlorophyll, turbidity and conductivity were analyzed by using distributed lag non-linear model, based on data including water quality, weather and feeding from the experimental pond for Eriocheir sinensis breeding in Yixing City in 2020. The results showed that, there was a long-term lag effect between water quality change and feeding amount of feedstuff. Compared with the median feeding amount, under the condition of high feeding amount, mass concentration of dissolved oxygen showed significant decrease trend in 75% of all the observation points and the maximum negative effect during the lag period reached -1.781 mg/L (95% confidence interval: -2.916～-0.647 mg/L). Mass concentration of ammonia nitrogen, conductivity and pH value decreased significantly, while turbidity increased significantly during part of the lag periods. Under the condition of low feeding amount, concentration of ammonia nitrogen and turbidity increased significantly, while other indices decreased significantly during part of the lag periods. However, the lag effect of high or low feeding amount on mass concentration change of chlorophyll was not significant. In addition, the lag effect modes for the mass concentration of dissolved oxygen at the same depth of different positions and at the same position of different depths affected by feeding amount were different. This results can support analysis of the impact of feeding on water quality changes in the production environment and making strategies for water quality adjustment.

参考文献/References:

[1]ZHUANG K J, WU N, WANG X C, et al. Effects of 3 feeding modes on the volatile and nonvolatile compounds in the edible tissues of female Chinese mitten crab (Eriocheir sinensis)[J]. Journal of Food Science, 2016, 81(4):968-981.
[2]WANG S, HE Y, WANG Y Y, et al. Comparison of flavour qualities of three sourced Eriocheir sinensis[J]. Food Chemistry, 2016, 200:24-31.
[3]农业农村部渔业渔政管理局. 中国渔业统计年鉴[J]. 北京: 中国农业出版社, 2020.
[4]段青玲,刘怡然,周新辉,等. 大闸蟹养殖大数据分析模型和应用进展[J]. 农业大数据学报, 2021, 3(1):56-65.
[5]WANG Q D, LIU J S, ZHANG S Y, et al. Sustainable farming practices of the Chinese mitten crab (Eriocheir sinensis) around Hongze Lake, lower Yangtze River Basin, China[J]. Ambio, 2016, 45(3):361-373.
[6]王海候,金梅娟,沈明星,等. 螺蛳对蟹塘产量、水质的影响及其适宜投喂量研究[J]. 水产科技情报, 2016, 43(1):37-40.
[7]叶乐,林黑着,李卓佳,等. 投喂频率对凡纳滨对虾生长和水质的影响[J]. 南方水产, 2005, 1(4):55-59.
[8]潘杰,吴旭干,赵恒亮,等. 三种投喂模式对河蟹二龄成蟹养殖性能的影响[J]. 淡水渔业, 2016, 46(2):87-93.
[9]HE J, WU X G, LI J Y, et al. Comparison of the culture performance and profitability of wild-caught and captive pond-reared Chinese mitten crab (Eriocheir sinensis) juveniles reared in grow-out ponds: implications for seed selection and genetic selection programs[J]. Aquaculture, 2014, 434:48-56.
[10]阙有清,杨志刚,纪连元,等. 配合饲料替代杂鱼对中华绒螯蟹生长发育、体成分及脂肪酸组成的影响[J]. 水产学报, 2012, 36(10):1612-1623.
[11]LONG X, SUN Y, WADE N M, et al. Key metabolic and enzymatic adaptations underlie the benefits of formulated diets in the adult female Chinese mitten crab Eriocheir sinensis[J]. Aquaculture Research, 2020, 51(12):5125-5140.
[12]SUN M, HASSAN S G, LI D. Models for estimating feed intake in aquaculture: a review[J]. Computers and Electronics in Agriculture, 2016, 127:425-438.
[13]CUI Y, MA Q, LIMBU S M, et al. Effects of dietary protein to energy ratios on growth, body composition and digestive enzyme activities in Chinese mitten-handed crab, Eriocheir sinensis[J]. Aquaculture Research, 2016, 48(5):2243-2252.
[14]任妮,鲍彤,刘杨,等. 基于粒子群优化算法和长短时记忆神经网络的蟹塘溶解氧预测[J]. 江苏农业学报, 2021, 37(2):426-434.
[15]樊宇星,任妮,田港陆,等. 基于DeepAR-RELM的池塘溶解氧时空预测方法研究[J]. 农业机械学报, 2020, 51(S1):405-412.
[16]XU L, LIU S, LI D. Prediction of water temperature in prawn cultures based on a mechanism model optimized by an improved artificial bee colony[J]. Computers and Electronics in Agriculture, 2017, 140:397-408.
[17]BARZEGAR R, AALAMI M T, ADAMOWSKI J. Short-term water quality variable prediction using a hybrid CNN–LSTM deep learning model[J]. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 2020, 34(2):415-433.
[18]徐龙琴,李乾川,刘双印,等. 基于集合经验模态分解和人工蜂群算法的工厂化养殖pH值预测[J]. 农业工程学报, 2016, 32(3):202-209.
[19]XU Z, BOYD C E. Reducing the monitoring parameters of fish pond water quality[J]. Aquaculture, 2016, 465:359-366.
[20]BOYD C E. Water quality: an introduction [M]. 2nd ed. New York: Springer, 2015.
[21]杨朦朦. 池塘养殖精准投喂量投饵机的研究[D]. 上海: 上海海洋大学, 2018.
[22]吴强泽. 池塘养殖智能投饲系统的研究[D]. 南京: 南京农业大学, 2016.
[23]饶毅,徐先栋,丁立云,等. 不同饲料投喂量下生物絮团技术对草鱼养殖及水质的影响[J]. 湖南农业科学, 2020, 4:51-54, 57.
[24]GASPARRINI A, ARMSTRONG B, KENWARD M G. Distributed lag non-linear models[J]. Statistics in Medicine, 2010, 29(21):2224-2234.
[25]张克兴. 基于分布滞后非线性模型分析PM2.5对循环系统疾病寿命损失影响[D]. 北京: 中国疾病预防控制中心, 2018.
[26]黄照,刘涛,许燕君,等. 基于死亡数据用DLNM构建气象健康指数[J]. 环境卫生学杂志, 2018, 8(5):368-373,380.
[27]谷少华,贺天锋,陆蓓蓓,等. 基于分布滞后非线性模型的归因风险评估方法及应用[J]. 中国卫生统计, 2016, 33(6):959-962.
[28]GASPARRINI A. Distributed lag linear and non-linear models in R: The package dlnm[J]. Journal of Statistical Software, 2011, 43(8):1-20.
[29]吴桂亮. 蟹池水浑因投喂量不足[N]. 江苏农业科技报, 2007-09-08(6).
[30]CHEN Y, YU H, CHENG Y, et al. A hybrid intelligent method for three-dimensional short-term prediction of dissolved oxygen content in aquaculture[J]. PLoS One, 2018, 13(2):e0192456.
[31]CHEN Y L, CHEN L Q, QIN J G, et al. Growth and immune response of Chinese mitten crab (Eriocheir sinensis) fed diets containing different lipid sources[J]. Aquaculture Research, 2016, 47(6):1984-1995.
[32]CAO X K, REN N, TIAN G L, et al. A three-dimensional prediction method of dissolved oxygen in pond culture based on Attention-GRU-GBRT[J]. Computers and Electronics in Agriculture, 2021, 181:105955.

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期：2021-12-13基金项目：江苏省农业科技自主创新基金项目[CX(19)1003]作者简介：金晶（1993-），女，江苏南京人，博士，助理研究员，主要从事农业大数据分析与利用研究。（E-mail）20210101@jaas.ac.cn通讯作者：任妮，（E-mail）rn@jaas.ac.cn
更新日期/Last Update: 2022-09-06