[1]田宏伟,邢开成,黄进,等.近30年河南省夏玉米的气象年景波动对大气环流的响应[J].江苏农业学报,2020,(06):1437-1443.[doi:doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-4440.2020.06.012]
　TIAN Hong-wei,XING Kai-cheng,HUANG Jin,et al.Responses of fluctuations of annual meteorological harvest for summer maize to atmospheric circulation in Henan province during recent 30 years[J].,2020,(06):1437-1443.[doi:doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-4440.2020.06.012]
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近30年河南省夏玉米的气象年景波动对大气环流的响应()
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江苏农业学报[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]

卷:
期数:
2020年06期
页码:
1437-1443
栏目:
耕作栽培·资源环境
出版日期:
2020-12-31

文章信息/Info

Title:
Responses of fluctuations of annual meteorological harvest for summer maize to atmospheric circulation in Henan province during recent 30 years
作者:
田宏伟1; 2; 邢开成3;  黄进1; 4; 张方敏1; 4
(1.中国气象局/河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点实验室,河南郑州450003;2.河南省气象科学研究所,河南郑州450003;3.河北省气候中心,河北石家庄050011;4.南京信息工程大学应用气象学院,江苏南京210044)
Author(s):
TIAN Hong-wei1; 2; XING Kai-cheng3; HUANG Jin1; 4; ZHANG Fang-min1; 4
(1.China Meteorological Administration/Henan Provincial Key Laboratory of Agrometeorological Safeguard and Applied Technique, Zhengzhou 450003, China;2.Henan Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Zhengzhou 450003, China;3.Hebei Provincial Climate Center, Shijiazhuang 050011, China;4.School of Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China)
关键词:
河南省; 夏玉米; 气象年景; 气候产量指数; 大气环流
Keywords:
Henan province; summer maize; annual meteorological harvest; climate-driven yield index; large-scale atmospheric circulation
分类号:
S162.5+3
DOI:
doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-4440.2020.06.012
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
依托河南省17个地级市1988-2017年夏玉米产量数据及15种大尺度大气环流指数(LACI)资料，运用气候产量指数(CDYI)评估了研究区夏玉米气象年景对大气环流异常的响应，主要结果如下：(1) 与其他拟合方法相比，HP滤波法更适用于研究区夏玉米气候产量的提取；(2) 基于主成分分析结果，河南省可以划分为4个呈现不同夏玉米CDYI演变情形的子区域，分别为东南部、北部、中南部、西部，且2003年后各分区CDYI的波动趋于缓和；(3) 与其他分区相比, 河南省东南部地区CDYI与大尺度大气环流指数的线性关系最为显著，特别是1月份较高数值的东太平洋/北太平洋涛动指数(EP/NP)是表征该区域夏玉米减产的重要前兆性信号; (4) 夏玉米气象年景波动对环流信号的响应存在不稳定性和阶段性。
Abstract:
The climate-driven yield index (CDYI) was used to evaluate the responses of annual meteorological harvest of summer maize to atmospheric circulation anomalies in the study area, based on the yield data of summer maize from 1988 to 2017 in 17 prefecture-level cities of Henan province and the data of 15 large-scale atmospheric circulation indices (LACI). The main results are as follows: firstly, HP filter method was more suitable for extracting the climate-driven yield of summer maize in the study area compared with other fitting methods. Secondly, Henan province could be divided into four sub-regions with different temporal variations of CDYI for summer maize such as southeast region, north region, central south region and west region, based on the results of principal component analysis, and the CDYI fluctuations in each sub-regions tended to be moderate after 2003. Thirdly, the linear relationship between CDYI and LACI in southeast region of Henan province was the most significant compared with other sub-regions, the oscillation index (EP/NP) of East Pacific/North Pacific with a relatively higher value was the key precursory signal for yield reduction of summer maize in this region especially in January. Fourthly, there were instabilities and stage features in the response process of annual meteorological harvest fluctuations of summer maize to circulation signals.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期：2020-04-13基金项目：中国气象局/河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点实验室开放研究基金项目(AFM202006)；科技部重大研发计划项目(2018YFC1506606)作者简介：田宏伟(1982-),男,河南永城人,硕士,高级工程师,主要从事农业气象研究。(E-mail)cooperatornuist@163.com通讯作者：刑开成,(E-mail)sslhj@aliyun.com
更新日期/Last Update: 2021-01-15